Bank of Japan Watch Pressure to stem yen strength increasing The main concern for the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board at its August meeting, concluding next Thursday (9th), is likely to remain the situation in Europe. The slowdown overseas threatens to further... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US set for a couple more years of sluggish growth We no longer believe that US economic growth will accelerate as much next year. The continued drag from the crisis in the euro-zone and the risk that America hits a fiscal cliff at the end of this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prospects for global demand continue to dim The further falls in the global manufacturing PMIs and the Baltic Dry Index underline the fragility of global demand and the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities. Against this... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank could cut rates once more this year Although the Czech National Bank (CNB) left interest rates on hold today, we think the weakness of the economy could prompt one further 25bp rate cut before the end of this year. 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE and rate cut likely later this year It is only a month since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resumed its quantitative easing (QE) programme, so no action was likely at today’s meeting. Nonetheless, we expect both an interest rate... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s new cabinet unlikely to herald radical shift in policy The much-anticipated announcement of the new Egyptian cabinet was a bit of a damp squib. Admittedly, the technocratic nature of the new administration has calmed fears of an Islamist-dominated... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) The latest CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that development activity in the commercial property sector continues to increase slowly. However, with the recession not over yet, this apparent... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are low retail property yields in Brussels justified? At around 4.5%, Brussels retail yields are back very close to the lows recorded in late 2007 and early 2008. On this basis, only in Vienna and some German cities does retail property look more... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing makes weak start to Q3 The global economy, which slowed sharply in the second quarter, has made a poor start to the third. Growth appears to have slowed in most of the major advanced economies in July, supporting our view... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business optimism continues to deteriorate The further decline in the CFIB's small business barometer in July is an early indication that the overall pace of economic recovery may have slowed further. While GDP growth in the second quarter is... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Here's what the Fed should do next... The more we think about this from the perspective of what the Fed is ultimately trying to achieve, the more we're convinced that the best option would be a cut in the interest rate payable on excess... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soon Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat, but offers hint of further action soon Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing demonstrated that the drag from the euro-zone’s debt crisis on the UK’s industrial sector is building. 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still stuck in a rut The modest increase in industrial output in June does not alter the fact that Brazil’s economy and its manufacturers in particular are still struggling. Further stimulus measures seem likely over the... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
