Asia Economics Weekly Singapore’s push for more babies Ahead of last Thursday’s National Day holiday in Singapore, a music video urged patriotic citizens to “celebrate National Night by giving the country the population spurt it so desperately needs”. The... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bank turns hawkish despite slowdown in growth The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q2, though modest, is likely to be a sign of things to come. Accordingly, speculation that the Central Bank may soon hike interest rates seems premature. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jun.) & Construction Output (Q2) Although July’s producer prices figures disclosed the first rise in input price inflation since February, we doubt that this is a sign of an emerging consumer price inflation threat. Indeed, the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain lacklustre Hopes of a swift rebound in Chinese commodity imports were dashed by today’s trade data which have sent commodity prices lower. We expect this to be a recurring theme as any rebound in China’s economy... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn prices are poised to fall US corn production estimates published today by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down sharply. However, this was largely anticipated by the market, and was mainly... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jul.) Today’s trade and lending figures brought more disappointment. Exports to the US suffered their worst drop since late-2008, while lending fell well short of expectations. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to Q2 (and Q3) GDP The government’s latest economic assessment suggests that the recovery has “paused”. As we approach the middle of the third quarter, it looks increasingly likely that the recovery has in fact started... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Modest progress on "productive" investment The recent strength in imports of machinery and equipment suggest business investment is on a tear. Closer examination of productivity-boosting investment, however, suggests progress has been modest... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Emerging signs of an Olympics boost to spending After a slow start, there are tentative signs that the Olympic Games have given a small boost to overall consumer spending, in line with our expectations. Nonetheless, we suspect that this boost will... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment cycle may have peaked The surge in housing starts, driven entirely by hi-rise condominium construction despite already high inventory, is now glaring evidence of overbuilding. Anecdotal evidence, meanwhile, points to... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus First thoughts on the Mexican election results The dust has yet to settle on the Mexican general election and so it is probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions as to what the outcome will mean for policymaking. That said, the early signs... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun. 12) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in June suggests that the easing in global demand and the strengthening in the dollar have yet to take a major toll on the US economy. But we doubt this can... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 0.3% m/m gain in export volumes together with upward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports increased, a somewhat stronger outcome than the slight decline we had... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2 12) The sharp slowdown in jobs growth seems to have fed through rapidly to the mortgage delinquency rate, which rose for the first time in a year in the second quarter. There was better news on the... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation fell to a six-year low in July as price pressures in virtually all the components of the consumer price basket eased. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
