Canada Economics Update Rebound in Canadian dollar won't last We doubt that the recent rally in the Canadian dollar to above parity against its US counterpart will last. Admittedly, the safe haven status of the currency may continue to support it in the near... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Are student loans the next bubble? The near-quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to $900bn, or 6% of GDP, is a concern, but we don't believe it represents a serious threat to the US financial system or that it will... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian president fighting for civilian rule In a surprising move, the Egyptian President decided to sack the country’s two top-ranking generals and cancelled an earlier declaration by the military council that gave it wide legislative powers... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: don’t bank on a rapid rebound The rapid turnaround in fortunes for Brazil’s economy has provoked much head-scratching from policymakers and investors alike. We think the key point is that the slowdown in growth owes as much to... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fading growth remains reliant on government support Japan’s economy slowed to a crawl in Q2, with growth remaining dependent on government support for a second consecutive quarter. With the external economy weak and private demand fragile, GDP is... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian political tensions put FX reserve buffers at risk The National Bank of Romania (NBR) appears to have stepped up intervention in the FX market to defend the leu following the recent bout of political turmoil. For now, FX reserve coverage looks... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank in a difficult balancing act The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its discount rate by 150bp to 10.5% today. Monetary policy is likely to be loosened further in an effort to revive growth, even at the risk of stoking already-high... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly No gold medal for the economy The Olympic mood was abruptly punctured by Mervyn King as he presented the Bank of England’s Inflation Report last week. Although the lower near-term profile for inflation was good news, this was... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Boost to risky assets from Draghi's pledge unlikely to last long 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drought a small, but unhelpful, drain on growth The loss of corn and soybean crops caused by the drought may reduce annual GDP growth by less than 0.1%. The drought is therefore not a disaster for the wider economy. But it doesn’t help when the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update South East offices could be a segment to watch Given that the economic backdrop is still so weak, it remains difficult to see a trigger for a widespread commercial property recovery in the near term. But the South East office market has shown... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Action will need to follow words before long Two weeks after Mario Draghi’s pledge to do whatever it takes to save the euro, his words have still not been followed by actions. Indeed, an impasse appears to have ensued in which the major players... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Lettings Survey (Jul.) Tenant demand growth continued to soften over the second quarter of 2012, but given a slight drop in letting instructions surveyors still expect rents to grow modestly. Very weak demand in London may... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth slows in the Baltic States Q2’s GDP data provide the first sign that the impressive bounce in growth in the Baltic States is coming to an end. Growth decelerated in Latvia and slowed to a crawl in Lithuania and Estonia. A... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul. 12) July's surprisingly large 30,400 decline in employment, following two months of paltry gains, is a bad start to the second half of this year. Admittedly, the underlying details were better than the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong economy unlikely to rebound anytime soon Hong Kong’s economy contracted in Q2. With global growth set to disappoint over the next couple of years, we expect Hong Kong’s trade-dependent economy to continue to struggle in the coming quarters. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
