UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug. 12) & Labour market (Jun./Jul. 12) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting supported our view that more policy stimulus is likely before long. Meanwhile, the labour market remains puzzlingly resilient, but we doubt that this can last with... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Cities & Regions Data Response The ONS data confirm reports from other sources that back in June, the London housing market remained strong. However we are less confident about some of the apparent strength reported for some other... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Weak confidence to weigh on capital values Our forecast that all-property capital values will fall modestly, by between 6% and 7%, from peak to trough is unchanged. The downturn in capital values that we envisage is modest in both scale and... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jul.) The sharp 0.8% m/m rebound in retail sales in July was the first increase in four months, but only reversed the declines in the previous two months. So although consumers might have loosened their... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update No need to worry about food inflation just yet The pick-up in food inflation in Emerging Europe is likely to raise fears that the recent spike in global agricultural prices is starting to hit the region. There is a fair amount of uncertainty, but... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The acceleration in the monetary base is not feeding through to broader money growth as demand for credit, particularly from businesses, is weakening. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where will Spanish and Italian property yields peak? Reports that investor interest in Spanish and Italian property has slumped in recent months seem consistent with our view that from current levels, property yields in both markets will see above... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal austerity bites in Hungary and the Czech Republic Today’s Q2 GDP data paint a picture of weakening growth, with Hungary joining the Czech Republic in recession. For now, the drop in output in both countries seems to have been driven as much by... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India mired in stagflation The latest output and inflation data suggest India is now suffering from stagflation. Industrial production has stopped growing while inflation is stuck at around 7%. What’s more, there is little... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Jul.) Activity in the housing market declined again in July, with a particularly large fall in newly agreed sales. Although demand and supply remain fairly well balanced, surveyors continue to expect... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & German ZEW (Aug.) The euro-zone economy probably entered recession in Q2. And the troubled peripheral economies saw sharp falls in GDP, hindering their fiscal consolidation efforts and deepening the region’s debt... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) UK inflation rose for the first time in four months in July, but the increase was driven by temporary factors. We still expect inflation to be back below its 2% target within two or three months. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia set for weak recovery despite policy easing Asia’s strong rebound from the 2008-09 global financial crisis took many by surprise. Despite the policy easing now underway in Asia, the region’s recovery from the current global crisis is unlikely... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries – lessons from Japan? A messy break-up of the euro-zone could see the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hit a new low. But the US does not appear set for a long period of deflation. Any crisis-driven decline in the yield... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
