China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (June 2026) The uptick in Chinese inflation caused by the Iran War continued to unwind in June, amid lower prices for oil and many other commodities. The latest escalation in US-Iran tensions could deliver some... 9th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle will be gradual The RBNZ’s decision to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today came as little surprise. While the Bank made clear that further increases are likely, its emphasis on returning policy only... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update From energy to food: El Niño reshapes inflation risks Despite easing energy-driven inflation pressures, central banks in Asia are unlikely to rush to unwind recent rate hikes given the growing upside risks to food inflation from El Niño. 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates: too much caution now priced in? Strong GDP growth and rising inflation have raised the bar for further interest rate cuts in Brazil, and we expect a pause in the cycle later this year, with just one or two more 25bp cuts over the... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s new finance chief, USMCA, Brazil’s growth The nomination of Miguel Gómez Martínez as Colombia's next finance minister points to a much tighter fiscal stance when President-elect de la Espriella takes power. This should also help to quell... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s fiscal travails, East Africa and Ghana inflation The IMF's warning this week that Nigeria’s budget deficit is wider than officially reported comes on the back of recently-raised concerns about the use of total return swaps and will put pressure on... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak monsoon impact not only limited to agriculture India has just recorded its driest June in over a decade and that may prove a harbinger for the rest of the monsoon season on account of El Niño weather conditions. Deficient rain is already affecting... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will have to respond to stronger inflation The latest Tankan survey showed that output prices hit a record high, driven by the influence of higher energy costs on upstream industries. While higher input costs will be passed on to consumers... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Payrolls blip a drop in the inflationary ocean June's underwhelming Employment Report was still enough to support our view that the labour market is stabilising which, paired with sticky core inflation, should prompt the Fed to reverse last year's... 2nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus AI – your questions answered This Focus answers some of the key questions clients have been asking us recently about the economic implications of AI, from the sustainability of the investment boom to when and where productivity... 2nd July 2026 · 23 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2026) ISM points to easing price pressures The slight fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index in June doesn’t change the fact that the sector has generally been resilient since the start of the Iran war. And... 1st July 2026 · 2 mins read
