China Economics Update Inflation plummets, activity slows November’s drop in inflation was even sharper than expected and the data on investment and industrial output were weak too. The government is leaving its boilerplate language on policy unchanged... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Nov.) Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More QE possible as soon as January Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Entering another deep recession Hopes that euro-zone policymakers will hatch a new “grand plan” to save the euro-zone may have grown, but evidence is mounting that the region is on the cusp of another deep recession. In November... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank to cut again in February The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered its cash rate by 25bp to 4.25% today. We see global growth slowing to a below-trend pace in 2012, which in turn should bring more policy loosening in... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation may have fallen a percentage point or more in November. It will be a while before the impact of policy stimulus is felt, with the result that China faces a period of below... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for Asian markets? Following changes to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up, we have revised down our forecasts for emerging Asia’s currency and equity markets for next year. However, we see both... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for China’s markets? Policy stimulus is usually positive for Chinese equities but if it comes against a backdrop of a euro-zone break-up, gains are likely to be relatively low. In these circumstances, we would also expect... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation to touch record lows We think that Russian inflation will hit a record low of 5.5% next year. Nevertheless, persistent capital outflows mean that monetary easing is off the cards for now. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tightening here to stay The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark policy rate on hold today as expected, but the crucial point is that interest rates have already been hiked, albeit via the backdoor. Tighter... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down slightly last month as a sharp drop in food inflation offset a rise in domestic goods and services inflation. 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) Although the official measure of core inflation, which dipped from 2.2% to 2.1% in October, might stay slightly above the Bank of Canada's target of 2% in the near term, this is not a big concern... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker growth to be met with policy stimulus A combination of weak growth and deepening debt crises in the G7 and softer demand from China means that the economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next few... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Oct.) Headline CPI inflation is now past its peak, falling to 3.5% in October, down from a high of 3.9% in September. It should drop to about 3.0% by the end of this year and plummet to nearer 2.0% by March... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
