Japan Economics Weekly Growth to disappoint in 2012 The headwinds facing the Japanese economy are more likely to grow than abate, prompting us to revise down our GDP forecasts out to 2014. A sharp slowdown in the global economy is likely to leave... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Consumer prices were unchanged in November, held down by a drop back in gasoline and motor vehicle prices. The annual rate of CPI inflation fell only marginally to a still elevated 3.4%, from 3.5%... 16th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports weaken amid global slowdown Exports from the region have been weak due to lower demand from the West. However, domestic demand has so far remained fairly resilient across the region. Central banks in Australia and Thailand have... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response IP/PPI (Nov), Emp St/Phil Fed (Dec), Cur Ac (Q3) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in November is a bit worse than the 0.1% m/m fall we were expecting, but it looks like the floods in Thailand had more of an impact than we had... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns to dominate in first half of 2012 The past month has brought yet more evidence that Brazil’s economy has come rapidly off the boil. Indeed, it seems likely that the country may now, in technical terms at least, be in recession. For... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The official retail sales figures confirmed that November was a bad month for retailers and will raise concerns that spending will be soft over the festive period. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation (Nov.) December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Global slowdown will expose failure to boost consumption China’s 2008 stimulus was intended to buy time while the economy made the transition to sustainable, consumer-led growth. It hasn’t worked out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Regional Monitor (Nov.) The new annual regional data suggest that the widely-held view that London’s economy has fared better than other regions of the UK over the last couple of years is unfounded. 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s underlying inflation still weak On the face of it at least, the latest rise in inflation in Central Europe is deeply worrying, not least since it has come against a backdrop of slowing growth. But a closer look at the data reveals... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Rapid drop in inflation to allow more monetary stimulus Inflation is now on a downward trajectory almost everywhere as global commodity prices drop back and demand conditions weaken. Disinflation will gather pace in the first half of 2012 and inflation in... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s inflation figures provided further hope that inflation has now passed its peak and could soon fall pretty sharply. Give it a year, and the prospect of deflation could be the prime concern... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong yen undermining efforts to control inflation The Japanese economy is sinking back into deflation. Domestically-generated inflationary pressures are non-existent, while the appreciation of the yen accentuates the effects of falling global... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Philippines continue to disappoint? The main cause of its weak performance has been low investment. Demographic factors should push the savings rate higher over the next decade, which should in turn support stronger investment and... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are retailers facing a nightmare before Christmas? The high street has been emitting an unrelenting flow of gloomy news in recent weeks. We are reluctant to conclude just yet that Christmas trading will be a total write-off. Nevertheless, a splurge... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
