Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE Consumer Prices (Aug.) A further drop in the cost of housing pushed last month’s overall consumer price inflation in the UAE to its lowest level since early last year. To add to the good news, food price inflation is also... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI & IP (Aug.), Philly Fed & Empire State (Sep.) The continued rise in inflation in August, which saw both headline and core CPI inflation hit two-year highs, is another reason to suspect that the Fed will shy away from a further round of full-blown... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2011 Households in China are expecting consumer prices to continue rising rapidly. But with businesses reporting weakening demand, falling capacity utilisation and rising inventories, that could soon... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s inflation inaccuracies underlie deeper economic ills Official statistics continue to drastically underreport inflation in Argentina, resulting in a number of serious economic distortions. Building pressures on the regime make a recession probable... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Operation Twist offers best hope among limited options Given the weakness of the incoming economic data, the Fed is now almost certain to do something at next week's FOMC meeting, but exactly what is still not entirely clear. The proposal to lengthen the... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that the drop in food price inflation has helped to offset the impact of rising housing costs in Saudi Arabia. Since the food component accounts for a quarter of the consumer price... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery going from bad to worse Recent developments have only reinforced our long-held belief that the economic recovery will remain unusually lacklustre for several more years. We now expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in 2012 and 2.0%... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s consumer prices figures brought further hope that the peak in inflation is close. Lingering inflation worries amongst some MPC members should not stand in the way of more quantitative easing... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Is the squeeze on real household income over? Real personal disposable income growth slowed to a snail pace during the first half of this year, depressing consumer spending in the process. Compared to a year ago, second-quarter real income... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s data show that a sharp fall in food price inflation helped to push headline inflation in Egypt down to its lowest level since the end of 2007. Core inflation also fell. But, due to concerns... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower inflation and continued weakness in consumption Inflation fell in August and is likely to end the year much lower than today. This should open the door for policymakers to relax controls on lending, particularly if export demand slows 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s producer prices figures provided the strongest indication yet that cost pressures in the industrial sector have peaked. 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s growth momentum looks resilient Economic growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter, strengthening our view that Australia’s recovery is intact despite the fall in output in Q1. Worries about the global outlook obviously add... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation probably declined in August. It may rebound in September but is likely to have dropped to 5% or lower by the end of the year. This would remove a significant barrier to further... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation edges further above target Data released this afternoon confirm that Brazilian inflation rose further above the central bank’s target in August. The news will do little to calm fears that, following last week’s surprise... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
