US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September, which was more precisely only a 0.054% gain, should ease fears among the hawks at the Fed that underlying inflation is spiraling out... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Saudi Arabia’s inflation to a nine-month high in September will revive speculation that stimulus spending is leading to a build up in domestic price pressures. A closer look at the data... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation in decline Inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction, opening space for policy to be eased if necessary to support the economy. Credit quotas could be loosened before the end of the year. 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation stays high, despite slower growth Wholesale price inflation data for India, released today, suggest the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to go ahead and raise its repo rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, at its next rate-setting... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Sep.) & Trade (Aug.) The final euro-zone CPI data for September confirmed that both headline and core inflation rose sharply. But given the recent dramatic deterioration in the growth outlook, we still expect the ECB to... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency depreciation unlikely to delay interest rate cuts for long We doubt that the recent sell-off of currencies in Latin America will cause inflation to rise significantly over the coming months. Indeed, with economic activity set to slow over the coming months... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) We think consumer price inflation probably rebounded a touch last month, but still expect it to drop below 5% by the end of the year. As it does, policymakers are likely to start loosening controls on... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s data show that a sharp fall in food price inflation helped to offset a rise in Egypt’s house price inflation. Accordingly, headline inflation fell for the fourth consecutive month... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling inflation will provide a welcome boost Inflation appears to have peaked in most of emerging Asia, opening the door for rate cuts across much of the region next year. In this week’s key events, policy rate decisions from Sri Lanka... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation has probably peaked Data released later this week are likely to show another pick-up in Brazilian inflation and will no doubt lead to fresh criticism of the decision to cut interest rates at August’s COPOM meeting. But... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Sep./Aug.) On the face of it, the latest euro-zone CPI inflation and unemployment numbers would appear to reduce the chance of an imminent ECB rate cut. But with the economy on the cusp of recession and the debt... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) The stronger than expected increase in headline CPI inflation, from 2.7% to 3.1% in August, primarily reflects transitory factors and therefore is of little consequence for the Bank of Canada. More... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about inflation in Hungary? The outlook for inflation in Hungary is not as bad as recent developments suggest, but the plunging forint may still force the National Bank into a defensive rate hike within the next three months. 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
