Europe Data Response E-Z CPI, Final Manu. PMI & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) The latest euro-zone economic data do nothing to alter our view that the region is set for another tough year, even if policymakers implement further measures to help bring the debt crisis to an end. 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to face the ugly truth on inflation? The IMF’s forthcoming consultation with Argentina on a new inflation methodology seems unlikely to succeed where previous missions have failed. But with balance of payments strains growing, the allure... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A flying start, but can it last? Financial markets in Latin America have made a flying start to 2012 following a recovery in global risk appetite and an improvement in the incoming economic data. Nonetheless, we would caution against... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers in no hurry to loosen Policy loosening in China has got off to a slow start. The People’s Bank chose not to cut the required reserve ratio (RRR) ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, confounding widespread expectations... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's anticipates that rates are on hold until late 2014 The publication today of the first set of interest rate projections by the FOMC heralded a historic change in the way that the Fed conducts monetary policy, but had little practical impact on market... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to slow again in first quarter It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets hit by Iran tensions The escalation of tensions with Iran has meant that financial markets in the Gulf have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world so far this year. While the MSCI emerging market equity... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will falling inflation come to the rescue? A major constraint on economic growth last year – high inflation – now looks set to ease. However, this boost will not prevent household spending from falling again in 2012. Thankfully, near-zero... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia's equities outperform in early 2012 Emerging Asia’s equities have risen by more than the global average so far this year, but we do not expect the outperformance to last. Stock markets in Asia typically underperform developed markets... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Activity weak and outlook uncertain Economic conditions took a turn for the worse in November, as output, spending and exports all declined. Sentiment indicators for December were mixed with business confidence mostly stable, but... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation has further to fall Inflation rose sharply in 2011 as a whole relative to 2010 across the region. However, we expect below-trend growth and lower commodity prices to pull down inflation significantly this year. With... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's drop in consumer price inflation, to 2.3% from 2.9%, reflects a trend that is likely to continue this year. As further declines in underlying inflation coincide with slower economic growth... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Will China pull the rug from under Latin America? This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Latin America Watch. This will analyse major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at the impact... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices were unchanged in December and the annual CPI inflation rate declined to 3.0%, from 3.4%. Favourable base effects will generate an even sharper drop in that annual inflation rate over... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch GDP & inflation forecasts downgrade The January meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will yield updated forecasts for GDP and inflation but probably little else. We don’t expect any changes in the Board’s monetary policy stance... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
