Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to stay put, while maintaining policy optionality The RBNZ is likely to leave rates on hold at its meeting next Wednesday, while stressing that it stands prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures show signs of persistence. In our baseline... 20th May 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The drop in CPI inflation from 3.3% in March to 2.8% in April (consensus and CE forecast 3.0%) feels like the lull before the storm and tells us very little about the persistence of the surge in... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr 2026) The muted pace of core price growth in April likely reflects the softness of the labour market and consumer demand. That, in turn, reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to follow through with the... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2026) The sharp weakening in the labour market in April may help to restrain the recent upward march in gilt yields by highlighting that, so far at least, the Iran war is prompting businesses to reduce... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (May 2026) Given the RBA’s ongoing concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored, we think it will tighten policy a bit further still. 19th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The impact of the China shock on Japan’s economy Japan has weathered the China shock well so far, largely because the sharp weakening of the yen has kept Japanese exports competitive. However, the exchange rate is unlikely to keep weakening rapidly... 18th May 2026 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes not a major threat to housing market Some commentators have been arguing that the tax changes announced in last week’s Budget will end the 30-year super cycle in housing. By contrast, we’re not convinced that the attractiveness of... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly This time is transitory? Kevin Warsh now begins his four-year term as Fed Chair, but the April price data suggest he will have a tough time persuading his FOMC colleagues that they should cut interest rates again in this... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC still biding its time while war plays out The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s April meeting didn’t give too much away, though the optimist in us would argue that the tone was less hawkish than in prior communications. This... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr 2026) The 0.6% m/m rise in manufacturing output in April was partly due to a rebound in the transportation equipment sector, but there are also signs that the AI buildout is beginning to support activity... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political uncertainty may stifle economy for rest of the year The way things are going at the moment, it is possible that we won't know whether or not Starmer will be removed as Prime Minister and, if he is, who will replace him until mid-August. And if there is... 15th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2026) There were some encouraging signs of stabilisation in the headline housing market indicators for April, but the further decline in the sales-to-new listing ratio and recent rise in fixed mortgage... 15th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar 2026) The 1.0% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in March takes them back in line with their 2025 average and the jump in the S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April bodes well for the near-term... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ lifts 10-year yield to three-decade high The 10-year JGB yield climbed to a three decade high this week in response to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan and reports that the government will compile a supplementary budget to keep the... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Live chance of a rate hike at RBA’s June meeting Business surveys suggest that inflationary pressures continue to gain momentum in Australia. Although some of the increase in firms’ pricing intentions likely reflects noise, the RBA will still be... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
