US Economics Update How much is AI-related activity boosting GDP? We estimate that direct AI investment effects have contributed 0.3%-points to GDP growth over the past year while the wealth effects on consumption have been of a similar size. If equity values fall... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Higher rates and tariffs to continue to limit homebuilding The renewed rise in mortgage rates reinforces our view that housing starts will fall further in the coming years, keeping downward pressure on residential investment. This does not imply an impending... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms 2026: What’s at stake? The big risk after the midterms is that emboldened Democrats try to leverage the debt ceiling to achieve their policy aims, raising the possibility of a debt default. Admittedly, Republicans may lift... 21st September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update SEP suggests only limited appetite for further Fed hikes The Fed’s interest rate hike today is likely to be followed by at least one more later this year, probably in December. While the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed may be... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Leap in margins another sign of late-stage bull market The US corporate profit share has climbed to historic highs, mainly due to soaring profitability in AI-related technology sectors. But history suggests that such rapid gains in margins are difficult... 14th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump ups the ante with import ban on Canada President Trump’s import ban covers only 0.25% of Canada’s exports to the US and will have little effect on either economy. Nonetheless, Trump’s willingness to impose an import ban is further evidence... 9th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s tolerance for above-target inflation close to the limit While the Fed’s inflation misses over the past two years are primarily due to unanticipated shocks, the FOMC has arguably also become more accepting of above-target inflation as it seeks to balance... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recent rise in yields won’t sap the economy’s momentum The recent sell-off in long-end Treasuries does not amount to a tightening in financial conditions that will slow the economy. Accordingly, we still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by year-end. 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Deciphering central banks’ muddled messages We recently hosted an online Drop-In to review the latest Fed, Bank of England and ECB decisions and what their communications imply. (Recording here.) This Update provides answers to the questions... 31st July 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Fed holds as markets struggle to get a handle on Warsh The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions likely to tighten again The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then... 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
