Our new forecasts after the Budget and the US election

We’ve revised up our forecasts for UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in response to the policies in the Budget. We have not changed our UK forecasts based on the results of the US election as our analysis suggests a 10% tariff on the UK’s exports to the US would not make much difference to overall UK GDP. Trump’s second term as President, though, does add some downside risk to our UK GDP forecast and some upside risk to our UK inflation forecast.