Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next month. Elsewhere, the plunge in Venezuelan inflation to ‘just’ 107% in January provides further signs that the economy’s decade-long economic crisis is bottoming out. But the near-term outlook hinges to a large degree on whether US sanctions are eased further. Finally, Q4 GDP figures out of Brazil next week will show a small pick-up in growth, to 0.2% q/q.