Colombia shifts right, 301 tariffs, El Niño

Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election increases the likelihood of a shift to more pro-market policymaking and improved relations with the US. But we still harbour doubts as to whether he would be able to stabilise the public debt ratio. Meanwhile, the proposed US Section 301 tariffs unveiled this week would, if implemented, probably have a small macro impact in Latin America – even in Brazil, which has been threatened with an additional 25% tariff. Finally, the growing likelihood of an El Niño this year poses upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth in the region.