Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, the surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. The onset of a severe El Niño and second-round effects from higher food prices are key risks to our view that the RBI will begin loosening policy in early 2024.
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