Poland has ramped up defence spending faster than any other NATO country in the past few years, but we estimate that the boost to GDP growth has been less than 0.2%-pts per year. A high reliance on imports as well as structural weaknesses in Poland’s military-industrial base are largely responsible. The benefits will continue to accrue as Poland builds its domestic military capacity over time, but we don’t think this will move the needle on the medium-term growth outlook.
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