Bulgaria’s slow euro-zone convergence to continue

Bulgaria has become the latest but also the poorest member of the single currency area following its euro adoption at the start of the year. GDP per capita should continue to converge with Western Europe in the coming years, but at a slower pace than that experienced in other parts of Central and Eastern Europe when they were at comparable income levels. We forecast per capita GDP to rise from ~40% of the euro-zone average to ~55% by 2035, leaving Bulgaria at the bottom of the euro-zone income distribution.