US Economics Update Labour market conditions likely to tighten again The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then... 28th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong jobs, higher fuel prices keep rate hike in play June’s employment surge shows that Australia’s labour market remains resilient despite some broader cooling, while the sharp rise in regional fuel benchmarks is likely to push domestic pump prices... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (June 2026) With the labour market still holding its own, our forecast that the RBA will hike rates again in August remains alive and well. 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2026) The outlook hinges on the outcome of CUSMA negotiations, with the Trump administration’s latest 50% tariff announcement underscoring the risks. For now, we still think an agreement will be reached at... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026) June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2026) We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% and 2.3% this year and next, driven by strong AI-investment and a rebound in consumption growth. The labour market appears to be stabilising, and we expect the... 20th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2026) The official GDP figures showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2, bringing them closer in line with our China Activity Proxy (CAP). This may largely represent a greater willingness to... 15th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2026) Labour market recovering The modest rise in employment in June, following the bumper rise in May, will provide further reassurance to the Bank of Canada that the economy is recovering from its weak... 10th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (May 2026) The slowdown in wage growth in May is unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from tightening policy further in the months ahead. 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Update Immigration to continue driving Spain’s outperformance The scale of Spain's migrant regularisation scheme, for which 1.2 million people have applied, highlights the role that immigration is playing in Spain’s economic outperformance. We expect continued... 3rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
