Global Economics Update How to think about AI & inflation We think that the boost to demand from the AI investment boom is outweighing the disinflationary effects of any AI-driven productivity gains. Any suggestions that AI paves the way for near-term... 14th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly AI fracturing is broadening out Reports that China's Ministry of Commerce has been looking into restricting foreign access to top Chinese AI models are yet another sign that the bifurcation of US and Chinese AI stacks is moving... 10th July 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus AI – your questions answered This Focus answers some of the key questions clients have been asking us recently about the economic implications of AI, from the sustainability of the investment boom to when and where productivity... 2nd July 2026 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus AI’s global economic shockwaves AI’s effects so far primarily reflect a boost to demand from infrastructure spending. A supply-side improvement from efficiency gains will come, but we continue to expect these to arrive gradually in... 16th June 2026 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The price of free time in Latin America Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most... 2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update AI and jobs: could this time be completely different? We still believe that AI will alter the nature of work, rather than significantly diminish the role of human labour. While it is not impossible that AI eventually displaces most or all jobs, such an... 28th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s cybersecurity sector and the AI challenge Rapid advances in AI capabilities will reshape Israel’s cybersecurity sector, with significant macro implications given that cyber software exports account for around 3% of GDP. AI will likely... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoding the 15th Five-Year Plan China’s latest medium-term policy blueprint continues to elevate technological upgrading as the key to both security and growth. It acknowledges some of the negative side effects of industrial policy... 7th April 2026 · 51 mins read
China Economics Weekly Chinese AI spreading rapidly, both overseas and at home Although Chinese AI models still lag behind their US rivals in raw intelligence, they are nonetheless rapidly gaining global market share by being more cost-effective. And early signs suggest that... 2nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy? AI-related spending is giving a significant boost to aggregate demand and GDP growth in some countries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are the US, where the bulk of the spending is occurring, and... 20th March 2026 · 29 mins read
US Rapid Response US Productivity (Q4 2025) The productivity data released today confirm that, thanks to the large negative benchmark payroll revisions for 2025, productivity growth was stronger than originally estimated over the first three... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone productivity to remain slow Data released this morning confirm that euro-zone productivity growth remained sluggish last year. While productivity is already benefitting from AI in the US, we expect it to stay slow in the euro... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
