Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP growth forecasts for most economies lie below the consensus. Debt restructuring talks in Ghana and Zambia are making progress but are still taking too long and will heighten fears on what may come for other countries at risk of default, such as Mozambique. Fiscal fears are building in South Africa ahead of May’s election and are putting interest rate cuts on the back burner.
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