Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth

As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption growth from lower energy prices should easily outweigh the negative impact on exports from the stronger dollar. We then expect GDP growth to slow only marginally to 2.8% in 2016.

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