ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end

Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain disruptions and rising input prices took the shine off the region’s recovery in September, GDP probably still grew very strongly in Q3. Next week brings the results of Germany’s federal election on Sunday and the start of probably lengthy coalition negotiations and the usual month-end raft of data.