Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy still growing despite Iran war Euro-zone GDP (excluding Ireland) rose by 0.3% in Q1 and the latest official activity data point to a similar performance in Q2. Meanwhile, suggestions that European policymakers should engineer a... 17th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Will Germany's reform plans spark an economic recovery? 16th July 2026, 3:00PM BST A series of tax, pension and labour market reforms has raised hopes that Germany's new government is finally tackling the structural problems holding back the economy.
Europe Economics Weekly ECB interest rates & required reserves; EU-China trade The huge decline in energy prices over the past two months, together with June's HICP data, suggest that euro-zone inflation will be even lower in the near term than in the ECB's "milder scenario"... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (June 2026) The national HICP data for June suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June. That would leave it below the ECB’s forecast, making it less likely that the Bank will... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update German pension reform encouraging, but will take time Germany’s pension reforms should slow the rise in public sector pension spending a little, encourage people to remain in work for longer, and channel more savings into equities. But the benefits of... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (May 2026) The national HICP data for May suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged up from 3.0% in April to 3.1%. If oil and natural gas prices remain around current levels or fall back, energy inflation... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic growth may stall in Q2 The downbeat set of business surveys for May which were published this week have prompted us to shave our forecast for quarterly GDP growth to zero in Q2. Further ahead, an outright recession is... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited scope for fiscal support in energy price shock Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that... 11th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (March 2026) The weakness of German industrial production in March may have little to do with the Iran war as electricity prices for industry did not rise and output in energy-intensive industry held up well. But... 8th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas prices and European competitiveness The increase in European gas prices caused by the Iran war has been much smaller than in 2022 but it will make European industry less competitive compared to the US. Within Europe, it will weigh on... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response National GDP (Q1 2026) National data released so far suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone probably slowed to 0.1% q/q (data due at 10.00am BST). Excluding Ireland, GDP is likely to have risen by 0.2%, which is a... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
