Capital Daily Respite for bonds may be limited and uneven We expect German bunds to fare well in the medium term, almost regardless of what the ECB says this week. But US Treasuries aren’t likely to get the same relief. 7th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2026) The fall in euro-zone retail sales in July was the largest monthly decline in over a year and suggests that consumption made a weak start to Q3 following what looks like a decent rise in Q2. 4th September 2026 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin retail poised for a 15% capital value uplift by end-2028 Weakness in retail spending is likely to hold back the recovery in Dublin prime high street rents in the near term, but conditions appear ripe for a revival. Given the comparatively high level of... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2026) August’s energy-led rise in euro-zone HICP inflation might bolster the case for a rate hike next week, but the ECB should be reassured by the absence of indirect and second-round effects. 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September ECB hike looks nailed on The rise in natural gas prices in recent weeks, together with the continued strength of the euro-zone economy, mean that a September ECB hike now looks nailed on. Decisions thereafter will depend on... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (August 2026) August’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the economy has continued to expand despite higher energy prices and extreme summer heat. And the selling price expectations indices... 28th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tech-related demand to support prime rents in Berlin and Munich Strong tech-related demand is set to support faster growth in prime rents in Munich and Berlin than the other main German markets while the AI boom persists. However, we expect rent growth to ease... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (August 2026) Germany’s August Ifo survey and detailed Q2 GDP release added to evidence of surprising economic resilience and support the case for near-term policy tightening by the ECB. 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Bond markets and underlying inflation under control? Since the Iran war began, the sell-off in euro-zone government bond markets has been greatest in countries with high and/or rising public debt. We forecast yields across the currency union to fall... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2026) The euro-zone’s Composite PMI was broadly unchanged in August and, together with the continued fall in the input and output price indices, suggests that the euro-zone economy is continuing to shrug... 21st August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising EV exports won’t offset falling ICE sales The euro-zone’s exports of cars have fallen dramatically since 2017. This loss is driven by internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas exports of electric vehicles (EVs) are rising rapidly. Even if... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2026) Property markets were relatively unaffected by the Iran war in Q2, with investment activity strengthening and property yields rising only modestly. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz is not disrupted for a... 20th August 2026 · 0 mins read
