Europe Commercial Property Update Prime office rents will continue to exceed consensus expectations Euro-zone prime office rents have risen sharply in real terms since 2019. However, after allowing for the decline in space per worker since the pandemic, affordability remains below past peaks... 5th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will France be forced to tighten fiscal policy? We expect France to be forced into a substantial fiscal consolidation in the coming years. This would be a drag on economic growth, but the scale of that drag would depend, among other things, on... 5th November 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update New housing measures won’t fix Spain’s supply problems Spain’s new rent controls will do little to ease the country’s worsening housing shortage. While the government has pledged nearly €900mn in support for homebuilding and social housing, that will... 4th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2026) October’s euro-zone HICP data confirm that the indirect effects of higher energy costs on food and core inflation remain very small. While these effects will probably build in the coming months, we... 4th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The bond market’s troubles may be drawing to a close We continue to think that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble will give bonds a further boost over time. 2nd November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Indirect effects of energy prices still modest National inflation data published today suggest that the euro-zone inflation rate will have risen to 4.0% in October and there is growing evidence that higher energy prices are pushing up inflation... 30th October 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2026) The continued growth of the euro-zone economy in Q3 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue to grow steadily in... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to hike just once more While the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, the policy statement and President Lagarde’s remarks suggest to us that the Bank is becoming more confident that underlying inflation is... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment recovery delayed, not derailed Elevated interest rates and tightening credit standards will weigh on investment activity over the rest of this year and into early 2027. However, we expect euro-zone investment to rise by 10%-15% y/y... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (October 2026) The small fall in the Economic Sentiment Indicator in October leaves it consistent with solid GDP growth in Q4 and suggests that the economy may be holding up a little better than implied by the PMIs... 29th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak credit demand adds to downside growth risks The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey showed credit standards tightening and demand weakening across most loan categories. This supports our view that GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q3, while banks’... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why is France being singled out by bond markets? Rising interest rates and weak growth have made debt dynamics more challenging everywhere. What makes France stand out are the size of the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise the debt ratio and the... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
