Bonds Update Could France’s fiscal troubles be good news for Gilts? We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2026) Although the euro-zone’s composite PMI fell in October, it remains consistent with modest positive growth, suggesting that the economy has remained resilient in the face of the energy shock. And while... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tight supply to sustain industrial rents in main German hubs The unusually low share of take-up in the main German industrial hubs appears to reflect a shortage of available space rather than weak demand. While space under construction is rising, this is not... 22nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will hike only once more The latest evidence suggests that the euro-zone economy remains fairly resilient in the face of the Iran war and that, despite elevated energy prices, underlying price and wage pressures have not... 21st October 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity data soft in Q3, fiscal policy looser in 2027 The latest official activity data present a downside risk to our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But even if growth is slower than we had anticipated in the third quarter, we wouldn't revise... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone energy shock still much smaller than 2022 September’s euro-zone inflation data highlight that the energy shock is still much smaller than that in 2022, and the indirect effects of higher energy costs have so far been negligible. We suspect... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2026) After making a slow start to Q3, we expect euro-zone industrial production to have picked up in September. But the medium-term outlook remains poor due to pressure from China and rising wholesale... 15th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office values to take the hardest hit from higher rates Paris office values are set to fall by almost 10% peak-to-trough – the largest decline in the euro-zone – as weakening prime rental growth combines with sharper rises in yields than in other markets. 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The outlook continues to darken for the euro Euro-zone spreads and the euro have stabilised over the past couple of days and plenty of bad news on French politics now appears priced in. That said, it is hard to make an optimistic case for the... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU-China hybrid deal a potential blueprint for future The EU-China deal on plug-in hybrids is another step to strengthen EU trade defences and also offers a blueprint for future deals, but it is still consistent with the EU moving in a targeted and... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
