Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The flash Composite PMI for June suggests that the impact of the Iran war on activity may now be easing and, perhaps more importantly, that the worst of the Iran-related inflationary pressures may... 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (June 2026) Consumer confidence improved again in June but the mood among households is still very gloomy. Consumer spending growth is likely to be very weak in Q2 before staging a gradual recovery in Q3 as real... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No more ECB rate hikes? We have revised down our forecasts for oil and gas prices in light of developments in the Iran war and, as a result, are forecasting slightly lower inflation than we’d previously assumed. Our new base... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower energy prices ease pressure on the ECB The decline in energy prices this week suggests that energy inflation in the euro-zone has already peaked. And with little evidence of second-round effects on wages, the chance of the ECB raising... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Near-term downgrade to industrial, but long-term outlook solid Weak economic activity in the near term will push euro-zone industrial rental growth to its slowest pace in more than a decade this year. However, we expect rental growth to return to an above-average... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation unlikely to rise much further May’s jump in services inflation was entirely due to Easter timing effects and higher jet fuel prices. Looking ahead, even if it takes some time for the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz to... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2026) Euro-zone industrial production held up well in the first two months of the Iran war, and the recent news on the Strait of Hormuz will be welcomed by the region’s manufacturers. But energy prices are... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Suites of scenarios, models and European central banks The ECB's updated projections imply that at least one more interest rate hike will be necessary. But the absence of any clear guidance in yesterday's ECB press conference was arguably a dovish signal... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB falls for it again, but the euro is unlikely to benefit Faced with spiking energy prices and a slowing economy, policymakers have, in line with past ECB practice, put the emphasis on the inflation threat. If previous similar episodes are any guide, today’s... 11th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is not done yet After the ECB raised interest rates by 25bp today, taking the deposit rate to 2.25%, Christine Lagarde gave nothing away about the Bank’s likely next move in the press conference. We might learn more... 11th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus European student housing outperformance has further to run The two-decade period of student accommodation outperformance in Europe is set to continue, supported by higher income returns, favourable structural demand drivers and still-tight supply. Within... 9th June 2026 · 11 mins read
