Europe Economics Update New rescue plans are unlikely to save the euro Talk of radical new measures to bail out highly indebted euro-zone governments and shore up banks throughout the region suggests that policymakers might finally be considering the bold steps that... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The fall in the euro-zone composite PMI below the theoretical 50 “no-change” barrier provides the strongest sign yet that the region is on the cusp of recession. 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final CPI (Aug.) & Employment (Q2) The latest euro-zone CPI inflation data do nothing to alter our view that underlying price pressures are not as strong as the ECB fears and that official interest rates may fall around the turn of the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jul.) On the face of it, July’s healthy rise in euro-zone industrial production suggests that near-term growth prospects may not be quite as bad as the business surveys have recently suggested. Nonetheless... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deepening debt crisis points to new recession The debt crisis in the euro-zone has escalated rapidly over recent months and could now come to a head sooner than we had previously anticipated. This is likely to have severe near- to medium-term... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB paving the way for rate cuts After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the ECB struck a downbeat tone regarding the economic outlook and acknowledged that risks to price stability are no longer on the upside, supporting... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German court ruling points to troubles ahead Today’s ruling by the German Constitutional Court that bail-outs already undertaken by EU authorities were not unlawful might come as a relief to highly indebted euro-zone governments. But its... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) The breakdown of euro-zone Q2 GDP added to evidence that the region is in the midst of a broad-based slowdown. With growth likely to remain subdued, even in the core, we still expect the euro-zone to... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB about to turn? The ECB is likely to soften its tone markedly at this month’s press conference amid signs of a significant deterioration in economic activity. With inflation risks probably no longer deemed to be on... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jul./Aug.) The news that euro-zone core inflation remained very low in August while unemployment rose further in July should reduce any remaining inflation fears at the ECB, adding to expectations of possible... 1st September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) August’s weak EC business and consumer survey added to the evidence that the euro-zone recovery has gone into reverse, perhaps boosting expectations that the ECB’s recent interest rate hikes could... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Recent signs of growing stresses in the euro-zone banking sector support our view that credit growth will remain subdued at best and that household spending and investment will grind to a virtual halt... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone property investment market set to weaken Q2’s sharp slowdown in GDP growth in the euro-zone’s so-called “core” economies is a worrying sign that investor sentiment across the region as a whole could fall sharply in the near term. If that is... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German ZEW Survey (Aug.) August’s first business and investor surveys suggest that activity in the euro-zone is stagnating at best. With Germany showing a particularly marked deterioration lately, the region’s strongest... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Germany still want to save the euro? Germany’s reluctance or political inability to implement stronger measures to support the euro-zone’s periphery suggests that its appetite for the project might be fading. While euro-zone membership... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone GDP figures point to softening property investment market Now that it is clear that the economic weakness observed in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies over the past year or so is spreading to the region’s core, commercial property investors might begin... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
