Europe Economics Update Are markets starting to price in a euro break-up? Financial markets seem finally to have started to accept that the euro-zone might actually break up. Regular readers will not be surprised to hear that we think this process has considerably further... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any upside from the euro-zone crisis? Our baseline scenario is that an escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone will contribute to further large falls in almost all commodity prices over the next year or so, with gold and silver among... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to fire the silver bullet The idea that the European Central Bank (ECB) will fire a “silver bullet” into the euro-zone crisis by printing vast amounts of money to prop up the Italian bond market looks optimistic. Not only is... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production provided the strongest sign yet that the sector is beginning to act as a major drag on the economy. Given this, the problems of the region’s most... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing stresses in the banking system This week’s surge in Italian government bond yields has catapulted the euro-zone debt crisis into a dangerous new phase. Italy’s problems pose a far greater threat to the region’s banks than those of... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB come to Italy’s rescue? With Italian bond yields rocketing and European governments struggling to agree on a plan to raise finance, some have pinned their hopes on the ECB as possible lender of the last resort. While the... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Signs of a widespread recession The latest data have revealed that the economic downturn is deepening and spreading. October’s drop in the euro-zone composite PMI left it pointing to sharp quarterly falls in GDP of around 1.0%... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & EZ Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s falls in German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales confirm that an underlying economic downturn is accompanying the region’s debt crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Papandreou shatters the illusion Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s extraordinary manoeuvrings last week forced euro-zone leaders to acknowledge openly for the first time that a country could leave the euro-zone. Indeed... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Kicking the Cannes down the road As expected, the G20 summit concluded today without agreeing anything of substance. Euro-zone leaders were effectively told to get their own house in order, something they have conspicuously failed to... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi makes a dovish start, but won’t up bond purchases The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25% suggests that it is starting to acknowledge the effects of the region’s debt crisis on the wider economy. But, for now at least... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek referendum episode has let the cat out of the bag However the Greek referendum episode is ultimately concluded, the fact that euro-zone leaders have for the first time openly acknowledged that a country can leave the single currency is a potentially... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
