Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP does nothing to alter our view that the region is on the brink of another deep recession. 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would a euro-zone break-up mean for China’s markets? Policy stimulus is usually positive for Chinese equities but if it comes against a backdrop of a euro-zone break-up, gains are likely to be relatively low. In these circumstances, we would also expect... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing divergence between US and euro-zone manufacturing November’s purchasing managers’ surveys suggest the euro-zone is sinking into an even deeper recession even while the US manufacturing sector has strengthened. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Another rate cut, but no silver bullet The European Central Bank will respond to the growing evidence that the euro-zone economy is heading back into recession by cutting interest rates to 1% at its December 8th meeting. What’s more... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data suggest that Ireland remains on track to meet its budget deficit target for this year. But the near-term outlook for the public finances in Southern Europe is more downbeat. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts - the fall-out from an EMU break-up We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov./Oct.) The latest euro-zone data revealed a nasty combination of high inflation and rising unemployment to add to the region’s troubles. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The latest monetary data have revealed rising strains in the banking sector as the euro-zone’s debt crisis has deepened. While the ECB has continued to provide banks with liquidity, it has stopped... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up worries finally hitting the euro Last week’s rise in German bund yields might have reflected expectations that Germany has finally accepted the need to shoulder more of the peripheral economies’ fiscal risk. After all, German... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s flash PMI surveys provided further support for our view that the damaging effects of the euro-zone’s ongoing debt crisis are likely to push the region’s economy back into a deep and... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are euro bonds the answer? Jointly issued euro-zone bonds might represent the move into full-blown fiscal union that could be needed to preserve the single currency area in the long run. But opposition from Germany suggests... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The market fall-out from a Greek default and possible EMU exit Greece is on the cusp of a sovereign default that could still be either “orderly” or “disorderly”. An orderly default would cause less upheaval in the markets, but any respite would probably be... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
