Europe Economics Weekly Strong surface hides widening cracks The solid 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP in Q1 has left our previous forecast of 1.0% growth in 2011 overall looking too downbeat. We have pushed it up to 1.5%, but an even stronger figure of 2.0% or so... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cracks between euro-zone core and peripheral markets widen Today’s euro-zone GDP data will do nothing to boost investor sentiment towards commercial property in the region’s troubled peripheral economies. Rather it supports forecasts that the gap between... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) Q1’s 0.8% gain in euro-zone GDP has got the year off to a solid start and we have revised our full-year growth forecast up from 1.0% to 1.5%. But with the divergences in the region still widening... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures add to evidence that the recovery in the sector is starting to lose a bit of steam. This supports our view that GDP growth is likely to be pretty... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB softens its stance slightly Having kept interest rates unchanged at 1.25% as expected, President Trichet’s comments in the press conference appeared to provide tentative support to the view that the ECB is not about to embark on... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Official public finances data for 2010 confirmed that while the core economies are making clear progress to rein in their budget deficits, the periphery’s fiscal problems are far from over. 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Too soon to look for a recovery in peripheral markets Since our previous Analyst we have become a little more optimistic about the potential for returns in some of the core euro-zone commercial property markets such as Germany, France and Belgium, as... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The flash euro-zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April confirmed that economic activity in the region as a whole is still defying the continued problems in the periphery. 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone industrial rents unlikely to rise until 2012 or later The combination of a high proportion of underutilised stock and early signs that the euro-zone industrial recovery is now starting to lose momentum, suggests that most euro-zone industrial markets are... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March’s rise in headline euro-zone CPI inflation, which was down to a pick-up in core inflation, is not as alarming as it may seem. But it will do nothing to ease the ECB’s concerns about building... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind Prod. (Feb 11) February’s euro-zone industrial production figures provide tentative signs that the recovery in the sector is starting to lose momentum. 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will higher rates do to the euro-zone? We doubt that the probable ECB interest rate hike on Thursday marks the start of an aggressive policy tightening. But if interest rates were to rise in line with market expectations, their impact... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s euro-zone inflation figures increased the likelihood that next week’s ECB rate hike will not be a one-off. But the weakness of underlying price pressures in the region suggests that a major... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment provides some tentative signs that the euro-zone recovery may begin to slow before too long, suggesting that an April rate hike by the... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Public finances data for February revealed a familiar picture, with Spain leading the way with respect to its fiscal tightening plans while Greece continued to lag behind. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental value growth outlook still pretty weak The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
