Europe Data Response Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Greek & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production and the weak Greek and Portuguese Q3 GDP data provided additional firm evidence that the region’s economic problems continue to mount. 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core economies managed before the euro The common perception that the euro-zone’s core economies are inherently dependent on exports and would struggle to grow outside the single currency is misplaced. They all achieved pretty strong... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Draghi provides very little comfort While the ECB apparently stands ready to buy peripheral governments’ bonds, President Draghi gave little assurance today about when it might start or how many it might purchase. He also ruled out... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed signals on Q3 growth The economic data has provided somewhat conflicting messages on the likely strength of the euro-zone economy during the third quarter of the year. While the hard data on industrial production and... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment has much further to rise We suspect that the recent rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate is a sign of things to come and see the rate peaking at about 13.5% next year. This, together with continued fiscal austerity, is... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB adamant about conditions for bond buying The ECB seems set to remain on standby this month. With just the announcement of its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme still buoying market sentiment, the Bank has yet to be called upon... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Sep.) & Flash CPI (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone unemployment in September, coupled with the high level of CPI inflation, does not bode well for consumer spending in the latter part of 2012. 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest Spanish public finances data, which show that Spain is struggling to meet its budget deficit targets, will increase the pressure on the Government to request a bail-out. 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s deterioration in the euro-zone EC business and consumer surveys supported other evidence that the economy started Q4 on a very weak note. The fall in the headline Economic Sentiment... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would a euro break-up be worse than the Lehmans crisis? The economic and financial effects of one or two small economies leaving the euro-zone would not necessarily be major, but the initial impact of a larger collapse would be rather more serious... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Composite PMI & German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI and German Ifo surveys continued to paint a pretty dismal picture of growth prospects in the region as a whole and confirmed that Germany is also suffering. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks still reducing their exposures to the periphery The core euro-zone banks continued to reduce their claims on the region’s peripheral economies in Q2. And despite recent hopes that the worst of the euro-zone debt crisis may now be over, we expect... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Calls for secession are a blow to fiscal union hopes Calls for independence from the richest regions of Spain, Belgium and Italy threaten to blow big holes in the public finances of the three economies. And more fundamentally, growing public aversion to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook A lull in the storm Expectations of stronger policy support from the European Central Bank have prompted a period of relative calm in the euro-zone. But previous lulls have not lasted for very long. There are still few... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.), EZ Trade & Final CPI (Aug./Sep.) October’s rise in the German ZEW index suggests that the prospect of ECB bond purchases has continued to ease investors’ fears for the economy. And August’s trade data suggest that the euro-zone as a... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
