Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct. 12) October’s euro-zone industrial production data provided further strong evidence that the recession in the single currency area has deepened in the fourth quarter. 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB solved the crisis? Recent actions by euro-zone policymakers and the ECB in particular have prompted some commentators to conclude that the region has turned a corner. But we still expect the crisis to deepen again soon... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB too gloomy? Not likely. Suggestions that last week’s downgrades to the ECB’s economic projections have left it too gloomy look wide of the mark. Against a background of weak global activity, continued austerity and high and... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in the third quarter brought little cause for optimism regarding the outlook for the region. With timelier indicators giving a universally negative picture, the... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession to deepen in Q4 Recent hard data have confirmed that euro-zone GDP fell for a second quarter running in Q3 and more timely indicators suggest that the recession deepened in the fourth quarter. September’s drop in... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Oct.) & Flash CPI (Nov.) The latest news on the euro-zone labour market and inflation further underlined the general weakness of the region’s economy. 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still standing ready Having boldly pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro back in the summer, ECB President Mario Draghi has struck a noticeably more cautious tone over recent months. We expect more of the same... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey does not alter our view that the consensus forecast for the euro-zone economy broadly to stagnate in 2013 is far too optimistic. A deep recession still looks... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data revealed a further small acceleration in the growth of money and bank lending in the region. But weak credit growth remains a major constraint on economic activity... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) The slight rise in the flash euro-zone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in November clearly does nothing to alter our view that the recession has intensified in Q4. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Commercial property prices on their last legs? In Q3, the euro-zone economy entered recession. For now, across the euro-zone as a whole commercial property rents and yields are pretty much flat. But if we are right that the region’s economic... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 12) Q3’s GDP data confirmed that, despite continued growth in Germany and France, the euro-zone as a whole is now officially in recession. We expect the recession to deepen markedly in the coming quarters... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
