Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) & Final CPI (Apr.)

While March’s euro-zone trade data are certainly encouraging, we remain sceptical that the sector can single-handedly drag the euro-zone and, in particular, the peripheral economies out of recession.

16th May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q1)

Q1’s flash euro-zone GDP estimate confirmed that while the euro-zone economy performed rather better in Q1 than Q4, it remained in recession.

15th May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours

As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt...

14th May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

German ZEW Survey (May) & Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Mar.)

May’s German ZEW survey and March’s euro-zone industrial production numbers made encouraging reading, but do not alter our view that the euro-zone remains in recession.

14th May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Germany's role in a solution to the euro-zone debt crisis

This Update summarises views expressed by Capital Economics’ Jennifer McKeown in a panel discussion at the Euromoney “Germany Conference” in Berlin on 24th and 25th April.

13th May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Can the ECB make negative rates work?

The ECB appears to have concluded that it can limit the adverse side-effects of imposing negative interest rates on commercial banks’ deposits. But even if this is the case, negative rates are not...

8th May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

ECB rate cut will be of limited use

The ECB’s widely anticipated interest rate cut should provide troubled banks in the region’s periphery with some much-needed support. But it will not be enough to drag the euro-zone out of recession...

2nd May 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.)

In 2012, most of the peripheral economies made decent inroads into their budget deficits. But the fiscal consolidation process is far from over.

30th April 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.)

April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support.

30th April 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap?

If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster.

30th April 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone EC Survey (Apr.)

April’s EC consumer and business survey supports other evidence that the euro-zone economy could contract again in Q2, marking the region’s longest ever recession.

29th April 2013 · 1 min read

ECB Watch

Balance marginally in favour of rate cut

Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an...

25th April 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.)

April’s euro-zone PMI survey provided another clear sign that a sustained economic recovery in the region is still some way off.

23rd April 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Fiscal figures cast further doubt on austerity policies

The news that the euro-zone budget deficit shrank again last year will be hailed as evidence by some that austerity is working. But the fact that most economies’ deficits have fallen by less than...

22nd April 2013 · 1 min read

Europe Data Response

German ZEW Survey (Apr.) & Euro-zone Final CPI (Mar.)

April’s fall in the German ZEW index highlighted investors’ fears that the German recovery will falter amid continued concerns about the euro-zone’s periphery.

16th April 2013 · 1 min read