Europe Economics Weekly Data dent hopes of French renaissance July’s French industrial production data were a blow to hopes that the economy is staging a longawaited recovery. With business surveys at low levels, consumer confidence weak, unemployment rising and... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q2) Q2’s employment data suggest that the downturn in the euro-zone labour market is coming to an end. But a significant upturn remains a distant prospect. 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won’t fuel the euro-zone recovery Hopes that looser or less tight fiscal policy will fuel the recovery in the euro-zone economy are unlikely to be met. For the foreseeable future, fiscal policy will remain a sizeable drag on growth. 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s large fall in euro-zone industrial production put a serious dent in hopes that the tentative recovery underway in the region’s economy will have gathered further momentum in the current quarter... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What effect will Germany's election have on euro-zone bonds? Germany will probably continue to provide temporary support for troubled euro-zone countries but retain an emphasis on austerity after its election later this month. This should minimise the demand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Spain staging an export-led recovery? Last week’s data from Spain were pretty encouraging – in particular, the PMI export orders index for August suggested that Spain’s robust export recovery continued in Q3. But other data indicate that... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Ind. Prod./ German & French Trade (Jul.) Data for July revealing falls in German and Spanish industrial production and a deterioration of Germany and France’s trade balances support our view that the eurozone’s economic recovery will be very... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB strikes balance between optimism and support President Draghi walked a tightrope today in acknowledging the nascent recovery while at the same time trying not to raise markets’ interest rate expectations. We think that he will fulfil his pledge... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Less could be more when it comes to forward guidance The ECB’s apparent success in verbally influencing the financial markets might reflect the vagueness of the central bank’s communications. But policy actions will always mean more than words. 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Final PMI (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The breakdown of Q2 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMI brought further confirmation that the euro-zone economy has embarked on a recovery. But growth rates look set to remain... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi won't firm up his guidance While the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic prospects suggests that a further cut in interest rates is unlikely in the near future, President Draghi will no doubt repeat the relatively... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The continued weakness of the euro-zone monetary data in July suggests that the pick-up in the real economy rests on fragile foundations. 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery could be jobless for some time The euro-zone’s nascent recovery is unlikely to prompt a significant improvement in labour market conditions for quite some time. This suggests that wage growth and consumer spending will remain... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
