Europe Economics Update The external adjustment has only just begun Most peripheral euro-zone economies have made impressive progress in narrowing their current account deficits. But so far this is only a correction in flows; theses economies have made little or no... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The solid rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector will expand in Q2. But industry is unlikely to spearhead a wider economic recovery. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Troika learning from its mistakes? While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeps its options open After leaving interest rates on hold, the ECB left the door open to more policy support, suggesting that more LTROs, negative deposit rates, forward policy guidance and stimulation for Asset-Backed... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys still point to continued recession Some of the euro-zone business surveys have had a slightly stronger tone over the last couple of months. Nonetheless, at current levels, they remain consistent with a further contraction in activity... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Pressure grows on the ECB to do more Although euro-zone businesses and consumers are becoming less pessimistic and policymakers are softening their stance on austerity, there is still little sign that the region is on the cusp of an... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May 13) & Unemployment (Apr. 13) April’s rise in unemployment and the fact inflation remained well below target in May will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Surveying the zero bound with caution After cutting interest rates last month and hinting that more support might be to come, we suspect that the ECB will disappoint markets at its forthcoming policy meeting and press conference... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (May 13) The EC consumer and business survey for May suggests that the euro-zone recession may be easing. But an economic recovery still appears to be some way off. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) While positive on the surface, the acceleration in money supply growth conceals several worrying dynamics, not least another fall in lending to firms. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece has continued to make good fiscal progress, but the other southern euro-zone economies are not faring quite as well. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property's stronger start to the year will fade The euro-zone recession shows few signs of easing and we have yet to see its full impact on European property values. At the aggregate level, capital values have been supported by further small falls... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) May’s euro-zone PMI survey adds to the recent run of slightly more encouraging news from the region, but there is little sign that the region is about to emerge from recession. 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account data not as encouraging as it seems At face value, the ongoing improvement in the euro-zone’s current account position, which has been to a large part down to developments in the peripheral economies, is a sign that the structural... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the equity rally boost household spending? We doubt that the recent equity market rally, combined with the ongoing downward trend in CPI inflation, will prompt a sustained recovery in euro-zone household spending. Indeed, in the periphery... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone crisis really over? The improvement in market sentiment towards the euro-zone has not been matched by a material change in the troubled countries’ economic and fiscal outlooks. As such, the crisis is not over. 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
