Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec 13.) The latest headline fiscal figures show that Italy and Spain, the periphery's two largest economies, may have struggled to make inroads into their budget deficits in 2013. 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Disaster averted for another year, but crisis unresolved Our fears that the euro-zone crisis would re-escalate in 2013 proved to be unfounded, thanks in part to the continued calming influence of the ECB’s OMT backstop. But the region’s fundamental problems... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How strong can the euro-zone recovery get? Although the euro-zone has tentatively emerged from its long and damaging recession, we remain sceptical that it will expand at a fast enough pace to reduce unemployment significantly, lower the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) The latest euro-zone trade data highlight that the external sector remains too weak to singlehandedly power an economic recovery. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI came as a bit of a relief after the previous two monthly falls. But the index still suggests that GDP growth in the region is likely to have been... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Banking Union progress offers little near-term relief Last week, euro-zone policy-makers moved closer to an agreement on the Single Resolution Mechanism responsible for handling failed banks. But while this is certainly a positive step, it will leave the... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q3) Q3’s employment data add to evidence that the euro-zone’s labour market is finally stabilising. But a burst of strong job growth is probably a distant prospect. 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production suggests that industry will make another negative contribution to GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB can’t count on Fed tapering to weaken the euro The ECB cannot rely on the commencement of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve to bring the euro down from its potentially damaging levels. 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB being complacent about deflation? For now at least, the ECB appears happy to leave its “powerful artillery” in the arsenal due to its fairly sanguine outlook for inflation. But rather than start to rise gently in line with the ECB’s... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pressure on the ECB to take further action set to grow President Draghi emphasised at December’s interest rate press conference that the ECB has a “powerful artillery of instruments available”. And the pressure on it to use these instruments looks set to... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 13), Final PMIs (Nov.13) & Retail Sales (Oct.13) The breakdown of Q3 GDP and more timely news on retail sales and the final PMIs further underlined the weakness of the euro-zone’s recovery. 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rating changes don't confirm convergence Last week’s rating changes by S&P, which stripped the Netherlands of its triple A status and moved Spain from negative watch to stable, appeared to re-affirm the recent message from the economic data... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Time to talk about the euro? Last month's cut in interest rates has not lifted the pressure on the ECB to provide more support for the fragile economic recovery. Accordingly, President Draghi may make a more concerted effort to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
