Europe Economics Weekly Rising bond yields, resilient manufacturing We doubt that the increase in sovereign bond yields this week is the beginning of sustained rise in borrowing costs, even if the headline inflation rate rises further. Meanwhile, we are looking... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February) February’s small increase in the Composite PMI left it still below 50 and consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP will probably edge down again in Q1. The survey also suggested that price... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in February but it remained very low. Unless vaccine programmes accelerate to allow restrictions to be lifted soon, a sustained pick up in confidence remains months... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Governments likely to avoid a labour market cliff edge We think the risk of surge in unemployment and slump in household incomes later this year is quite low. Euro-zone governments are choosing to extend their job support schemes and will probably scale... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Pandemic widens sectoral divergences Despite the sharp hit to economic activity, euro-zone prime commercial property values were comparatively unscathed last year, falling by just 2%. However, this hides large differences in performance... 16th February 2021 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s recovery shifting into reverse After a relatively mild first wave of coronavirus, Portugal is now contending with the worst second wave in Europe. Another economic contraction in Q1 is all but certain and more delays to the vaccine... 16th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ten key questions on the digital euro A digital euro is many years away, and the fact it is not intended to replace physical cash means that it won’t supercharge monetary policy as some may hope. However, it could become the norm for... 15th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production edged down at the end of last year but held up reasonably well during Q4 overall. At the start of this year, we think output will have been roughly unchanged; manufactures seem... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t get carried away with Draghi Italy’s government of national unity looks set to have a hefty majority, making it more stable and putting it in a better position to pass fiscal measures and reforms. But we wouldn’t get carried away... 12th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB write off government debt? A debt write-off would wipe out much of the recent increase in public debt burdens and give the ECB more scope to expand its balance sheet in the future. But the fiscal benefits for euro-zone... 9th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The return of Super Mario Mario Draghi is looking increasingly set to become the next Italian prime minister, leading Italy's recovery from the pandemic. That is likely to entail more fiscal stimulus, but structural reforms... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Summer tourist season at risk The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and euro-zone authorities’ slow progress with vaccinations, mean that there is a growing risk of another summer tourist season being lost. That would put a huge... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
