Europe Economics Weekly Economy re-opening again With the economic and vaccine data having improved in recent weeks we have nudged up our forecasts for economic growth this year. Meanwhile, European governments have handed in their recovery plans to... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Vaccination pace finally picks up After contracting again in the first quarter of this year, prospects for the second quarter have improved because the pace of vaccination has accelerated. At its recent pace, the euro-zone is on track... 6th May 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that euro-zone yields will rise only gradually Despite tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy recently and our expectation that long-term US Treasury yields will rise significantly over the next couple of years, we forecast that... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) Euro-zone retail sales rose again in March to back above their pre-pandemic levels. The planned lifting of restrictions should allow sales to improve further in the coming months, so household... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Apr.) The PMIs may be a less reliable guide to activity growth than normal, but recent progress on vaccinations suggests that the euro-zone economy will start to recover in Q2. And price pressures are... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, first estimate) Confirmation that the euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 means that the region suffered a second technical recession in just over a year. But the good news is that things should get better... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP Inflation (April) Euro-zone inflation continued on its upward trend in April and we think that it will soon rise above 2%. But that should only be temporary and we expect it to fall back below the ECB’s target in 2022. 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q1 2021) The unexpected increase in French GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has been more resilient to the poor health situation and restrictions than we had thought. Nevertheless, with France in a full... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The slowdown in money growth in March in year-on-year terms was largely due to base effects. It was still in the double digits and should remain strong over the rest of this year at least. But with... 29th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to put more emphasis on house prices in future The ECB is likely as part of the strategic review to place more emphasis on housing costs and may initiate the creation of a parallel price index that includes them, but it will not change the... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vienna office rental growth on hold until 2022 The poor near-term economic backdrop means that occupier activity will remain weak this year. But we think that the tightness in supply will prevent office rents from falling and support rental growth... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big an impact will Next Generation EU have? Next Generation EU has the potential to provide a significant stimulus to the economy over the next six years. But the impact on GDP might be smaller than most expect, while the impact on long-run... 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy keeping interest spending low There were no real surprises at this week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers doing little to push back against the increase in bond yields since March. But yields remain extremely low by historical... 23rd April 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) April’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI was a bit of a surprise given the tightening of virus restrictions. But the survey has overstated the strength of activity in recent months, and the... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t be micro-managing the bond market In today’s ECB press conference, Christine Lagarde did not seem fazed by the recent rise in bond yields or the evidence of tighter bank lending conditions. But we suspect that policymakers will push... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
