Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to keep wage pressures in check The amount of slack in the euro-zone’s labour market diminished slightly at the end of last year. But crucially, it remained higher than it was in 2019 and it is unlikely to have fallen much further... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021) The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine blues threaten to further delay recovery News that distribution of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is being paused is another blow to Europe’s vaccination programme and reinforces our view that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to begin a... 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stick to current PEPP purchase pace After promising a “significant” increase in bond purchases in March, the ECB Governing Council will not make any policy changes at next week’s meeting. Officials may try again to explain how they... 15th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Yet another blow to Europe’s vaccine rollout The delayed start to deliveries of the J&J vaccine is yet another blow to the rollout in continental Europe and on its own could delay things by at least one month compared to a situation in which the... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in February, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy has made a weak start to the year. Although the business surveys have overstated the strength of... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) Euro-zone retail sales rose in February but were 2.8% below their pre-pandemic levels. In many countries coronavirus restrictions have been tightened since then, and are unlikely to be eased again... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households still accumulating excess savings We estimate that households accumulated “excess” savings of around 4.4% of GDP last year. But they are unlikely to spend this cash any time soon, so it will probably not do much to boost the recovery. 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys overstating strength of the economy The strength of the euro-zone’s business surveys has not been matched by the official data, and with tighter restrictions being imposed for longer in many countries the level of output is likely to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The unexpected fall in industrial production in February means that German GDP will almost certainly have contracted in Q1. With severe restrictions likely to remain in place until well into the... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Still waiting for a shot in the arm… The euro-zone economy is doing better than many expected given that much of the hospitality and travel sector is still closed due to virus-related restrictions. Indeed, the latest business surveys... 8th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in ECB QE underwhelming so far The account of March’s ECB meeting showed that the decision to increase asset purchases was agreed by all members, but that some were reluctant to do much more. In practice, purchases haven’t risen... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The euro-zone Composite PMI rose to an 8-month high in March, but the level of activity remains low. And while the PMIs suggest that price pressures are building, we suspect this will be temporary. 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in February despite tighter virus measures being tightened, highlighting the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
