Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) December’s final HICP release shows that core inflation remained very weak across the board at the end of last year, with no signs that prices pressures are building. Inflation will increase in the... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2020) The Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell at the end of last year, and banks tightened their lending standards as they became more worried about the economic outlook... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy settings unchanged Having adjusted their policy settings in December, policymakers will be happy to sit out the meeting next week and repeat the mantra that they will do whatever is required to support the euro-zone... 14th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.5% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production was almost entirely due to a huge increase in Ireland. Excluding Ireland, production was roughly flat on the month. Nevertheless... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will households spend what they have saved? If euro-zone households spent all of their forced savings from last year, it could provide a boost to GDP growth in 2021 of as much as 3%. In practice, we doubt that it will be anything like that... 12th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.), HICP & ESI (Dec.) Activity data published this morning suggest that the euro-zone economy performed better in Q4 than we had anticipated. But the recent extensions of lockdowns make it more likely that the economy... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will rise this year, but remain very low Euro-zone core inflation is likely to rise this year as the temporary VAT cut in Germany expires and last year’s sharp falls in holiday and clothing prices are reversed. However, the inflation rate... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggests the economy ended 2020 on a slightly weaker note than previously thought. With restrictions being extended and tightened in... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The lockdowns implemented at the end of last year did not lead to another surge in bank lending, probably because they were less strict and more focused on limiting social activity. But if lockdowns... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus poses downside risk to Q1 forecast The virus data for the holiday period in the euro-zone are not as alarming as those for the UK, but they will force governments to extend and intensify restrictions in the coming weeks. As a result... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in December despite the tightening of virus containment measures in many countries. But it remained very low, and with the virus spreading quickly and a new threat... 21st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lessons for 2021 Based on this year’s experience, activity should rebound quickly in 2021 once restrictions are lifted, probably during Q2. But with price pressures set to remain very weak at least for the next couple... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) The breakdown of November inflation showed that falling prices for tourism-related services remain a major drag on headline and core inflation, which were unrevised from the flash estimates. Looking... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (Dec.) & Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in the Composite PMI in December to just below 50 primarily reflected the partial lifting of virus restrictions in France. But with Germany now imposing tougher measures, the big picture... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone industrial output marked a decent start to the quarter and we think that production will rise in Q4 as a whole. Industry has been largely unaffected by the more... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
