Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Counting the fiscal cost to the Gulf from the Iran war The disruption to energy flows from the Iran war will cause government budget balances to improve in Oman and the UAE (high prices have more than offset the impact on export volumes). But balances... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Energy subsidies contributing to larger budget deficit We now expect the price of Brent crude oil to remain high throughout this year, which means that fiscal measures to cap retail energy prices will cost an additional 0.6% of GDP this year. And with the... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s growth rate unlikely to rebound The main cause of Italy’s strong recovery from the pandemic was exceptionally loose fiscal policy. This fiscal stimulus has been scaled back over the past few years and growth has returned to a slow... 14th September 2026 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update NZ Labour’s tax plan risks delaying housing rebound Opinion polls suggest that New Zealand’s Labour party has a path back to power in November’s general election. Labour’s plan to introduce a capital gains tax on residential investment property risks... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global developments dampen PM’s policy ambitions The latest rises in gilt yields and UK market interest rate expectations have reduced Chancellor Healey’s headroom against his main fiscal rule from £23.6bn in March to around £15.0bn. And higher... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese firms continue to weather energy shock The Japanese economy has continued to shrug off the energy shock. Corporate profit margins rose to a record high in Q2, while industrial production held up well in July as supply shortages eased. That... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) With inflation and the resulting drag on households’ real incomes yet to peak, we doubt the surprising resilience of activity in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of this... 3rd September 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia ’s ugly “Truth Budget” puts fiscal risks in focus The big revisions to Colombia’s fiscal projections reflect the previous government’s fiscal slippage and imply an even larger squeeze is needed to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising. And it... 1st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s 2027 Budget: saving the AI windfall, for now Korea’s 2027 budget proposal released today suggests that the government will save more than two-thirds of a tax windfall from the boom in the country’s AI-related exports. That will provide some... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update New fiscal strategy leaves many questions unanswered The surge in planned spending in the FY2027 budget largely reflects the government’s desire to reduce reliance on supplementary budgets but it’s still unclear how that will affect the overall fiscal... 1st September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How could Japan respond to soaring bond yields? The recent increase in JGB yields has been driven by global rather than domestic factors and there are no signs that it is creating financial stress. The BoJ will accelerate its tightening cycle to... 1st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unwilling to toe government’s line The regular budget for FY2027 will probably include the largest increase in spending since the early 1990s. However, this partly reflects the government’s aim to incorporate spending previously... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
