China Economic Outlook Growth to pick up, but imbalances will persist China’s growth should pick up over the second half of this year as fiscal support ramps up. But domestic overcapacity will remain entrenched, leaving China’s economy reliant on exports for growth. 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ fiscal policy moving from expansion to contraction Euro-zone governments look set to loosen fiscal policy by nearly half a percent of GDP this year, helping to cushion the blow to the economy from higher energy prices. But fiscal policy will be... 24th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
India Economic Outlook RBI will need to hike interest rates before long The energy shock has taken a toll on India’s economy but GDP growth should still average around 6.5% in 2026-27, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 23rd June 2026 · 16 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by end-2027 The economy will lose some momentum over the coming quarters as higher inflation weighs on real household incomes. But the Bank of Japan will be more worried about the upside risks to inflation and we... 23rd June 2026 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Prime Minister Resigns (22nd June 2026) A change in leadership following Starmer’s resignation as Prime Minister may alter the size of the state. But it won’t change the fiscal realities. So while there may be talk of big spending increases... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia joins Latin America’s shift to the right The victory for right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia’s presidential election should pave the way for more pro-business policymaking, tighter fiscal policy and improved relations with the US... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A new PM won’t change the fiscal realities Andy Burnham's decisive Makerfield by-election victory has taken him one step closer to 10 Downing Street, but a change in Prime Minister won't change the fiscal realities. While there may be talk of... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (May 2026) Retail sales held up surprisingly well in May, but we doubt this resilience will last. Even if the US-Iran deal holds, inflation looks set to rise further (perhaps to about 4.0%) and retail sales will... 19th June 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly The PBOC can’t boost household credit demand Slowing credit growth in China is yet another sign of the dwindling consumption appetite of households. Bank lending to households has been contracting outright in recent months, even though liquidity... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE may not follow the crowd, Starmer playing defence An interest rate hold next Thursday looks nailed on and there are good reasons why the Bank of England may not join the central bank hiking club this year. Meanwhile, the political row over defence... 12th June 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Industrial policy boosting exports… According to a new OECD report, the subsidies that Chinese firms have received over the past two decades explain almost 60% of their gains in global export market share. But, while China's industrial... 5th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: investors lose faith as Prabowo doubles down The latest sharp falls in Indonesia’s financial markets reflect growing concerns that President Prabowo is doubling down on his populist and interventionist approach to policymaking. The central bank... 4th June 2026 · 4 mins read
