Global Economics Update Limited scope for fiscal support in energy price shock Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that... 11th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom rates, Brazil’s rare earths, fiscal developments With the latest indicators suggesting that Brazil's economy is holding up well and the labour market is still strong, we now expect the Selic rate to end this year at 13.25% (compared to 12.50%... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political change won’t alter economic and fiscal constraints Once a fuller picture of the results emerges later today and tomorrow, yesterday’s local elections could be historic as it could bring an end to Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister and highlight that... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow regardless of Budget While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the government will unveil large savings in the upcoming Budget, most of those will probably be used to finance higher spending. The key point though is... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: fiscal risks rising After three years of remarkable stability in Italy, a decline in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s popularity and higher energy prices mean political and fiscal risks are rising again. 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that economic and financial vulnerabilities in most EMs were low coming into the energy shock. Our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: political turmoil adds to rebalancing challenge The vote of no confidence in Romania’s Prime Minister next week looks set to usher in renewed political instability. That will make it much harder to pass the fiscal austerity needed to tackle the... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Colombia’s high-stakes election Colombians head to the polls on 31st May in an election which has major implications for the outlook for the economy and financial markets. This Update sets out the state of play, highlights the key... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Improved fiscal situation but hurdles lie ahead Higher revenues on the back of elevated oil prices and stronger economic growth were behind downward revisions to the budget deficit projections in the Spring Economic Update (SEU). While the economic... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Economic security tops Politburo agenda The Politburo has just held its triannual gathering to discuss the economy. The post-meeting communique suggests the leadership has turned more positive on current conditions and sees less of a case... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly USMCA, Kast’s fiscal plans, BCB to cut rates Comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week suggest seem to have dashed Mexico’s hopes of removing tariffs on autos, exports of which have been struggling. There are also... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
