UK Economics Weekly Global headwinds threaten UK’s economic resilience While the economy has shown remarkable resilience to higher energy prices and borrowing costs so far this year, we still think the coming rise in inflation will lead to an easing in GDP growth from 1... 16th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity data soft in Q3, fiscal policy looser in 2027 The latest official activity data present a downside risk to our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But even if growth is slower than we had anticipated in the third quarter, we wouldn't revise... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s debt burden to remain on a downwards path Egypt’s public finances still look poor on the surface, but there are reasons to think that the public debt burden will decline over the coming years. That will have positive spillover effects... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2026 Preview - Unfinished fiscal business We think the Chancellor, John Healey, will opt for a compromise Budget on Wednesday 28th October, with limited implications for the economy and the markets. But this just delays the difficult... 12th October 2026 · 18 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Le Pen the fiscal hawk? Merz the China hawk? Marine Le Pen's proposals this week to slash France's budget deficit are unlikely to have done much to bolster her fiscal credentials. Meanwhile, the joint letter by Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s conundrum, regional rating agency Contained inflation and higher FX reserves have given Kenya's central bank a buffer to avoid hiking interest rates for now, but we still think the shilling will eventually need to be devalued and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: strong growth provides fiscal breathing room Strong economic growth has boosted Malaysia’s government revenues, giving policymakers some room to lift spending ahead of a possible general election next year. But the budget still targets a further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi and UAE lead recovery in latest Gulf PMI data The whole economy PMIs for September show that the Gulf’s recovery is taking shape but is uneven. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are faring strongly. But recoveries in Kuwait and particularly Qatar appear... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
