China Activity Monitor CAP: China’s growth steady in Q2, despite Iran war Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in June and held steady over Q2. While weak domestic goods demand has dented industry, that has been offset by stronger services sector growth. 27th July 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal spending slows again Government spending has now been contracting for four months, according to data published this week, as local governments appear to be channelling bond proceeds into restructuring off-balance sheet... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two mounting upsides to our inflation and interest rate forecasts The recent rebound in oil and gas prices and the prospect of looser fiscal policy under the new Burnham government suggests the risks to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.0%, CPI inflation to fall to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening has further to run Our fiscal tracker shows a marked acceleration in public spending since PM Takaichi came to power. While we expect the budget deficit to remain very low this year as spending growth has yet to surpass... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2026) The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 - an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026) June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How quickly might Indonesia’s public debt rise? Indonesia is likely to break its 3% of GDP legal ceiling for the fiscal deficit this year. Still, given the low public debt level today, so long as the deficit stayed close to this level it would take... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia can still finance the war – but at a growing cost Russia’s fiscal strains are rightly receiving more attention, but we think the more alarmist commentary out there misses the key story. The problem is not that Russia cannot finance the war, but that... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%... 14th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA Treasury cuts off municipalities, Nigeria’s oil output South Africa’s municipal funding freezes this week signal the Treasury’s commitment to fiscal discipline, but risks hurting the ANC’s electoral appeal ahead of November's critical local elections. In... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GPIF set to come to the bond market’s rescue Finance Minister Katayama’s announcement that the government will encourage pension funds, including the GPIF, to invest more in Japanese financial assets has helped unwind the spike in bond yields... 10th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi government debt on course to surpass 50% of GDP Saudi Arabia’s government debt has been on an upwards path over the past decade and, with the windfall from the energy shock fading fast, we think it will rise from just over 30% of GDP last year to... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update 10-year JGB yield will climb to 3% before long The latest available data are consistent with our long-held view that Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed far more rapidly than many thought. Nonetheless, with the BoJ set to lift interest rates to 2%... 6th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s new finance chief, USMCA, Brazil’s growth The nomination of Miguel Gómez Martínez as Colombia's next finance minister points to a much tighter fiscal stance when President-elect de la Espriella takes power. This should also help to quell... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
