Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine joy, oil price jump, Brazil tariffs The US's announcement of a 25% Section 301 US import tariff on Brazil made a splash this week, but the macroeconomic effect is likely to limited. Meanwhile, the renewed rise in oil prices would - if... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation, FX concerns make August hike more likely The stars appear to be aligning for the RBI to begin a hiking cycle at the next policy meeting on Wednesday 5th August. We learnt this week that headline consumer price inflation rose to an 18-month... 17th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore boom continues, hawkish Bank of Korea Singapore’s economy remained strong in Q2, with GDP growth of 5.7% y/y driven by a manufacturing boom linked to AI-related demand. However, with inflation staying low, we expect the Monetary Authority... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy still growing despite Iran war Euro-zone GDP (excluding Ireland) rose by 0.3% in Q1 and the latest official activity data point to a similar performance in Q2. Meanwhile, suggestions that European policymakers should engineer a... 17th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ’s optimism will be put to the test The recent pick-up in crude oil prices vindicates the Bank of Japan’s concerns about upside risks to inflation. To be sure, the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz could prompt the Bank to flag... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Despite near-term headwinds, we are upbeat on the rupee The rupee has been one of the worst performing emerging market currencies over the past year. But it now looks undervalued, and we think that a hawkish RBI combined with falling energy and gold prices... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch ECB rates on hold despite higher oil prices It is highly likely that the ECB Governing Council will leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% next week. Although energy prices have risen sharply in the past few weeks, they remain lower than in... 16th July 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How high will rates go in Korea? The Bank of Korea today kicked-started its tightening cycle by raising rates by 25bps to 2.75%, and the tone of the central bank’s statement makes clear that further tightening is likely. We now... 16th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank content to look through energy-driven inflation The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul. 2026) The Bank's messaging accompanying its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.25% in July suggests it has no intention of responding to energy-driven inflation with higher interest rates... 15th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Can anything reverse the yen’s fortunes? While the weakness of the yen remains a puzzle, we still expect the currency to rebound by the end of next year. Our end-2027 forecast for USD/JPY is 150, which compares to a current rate of ~162. 15th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI & inflation We think that the boost to demand from the AI investment boom is outweighing the disinflationary effects of any AI-driven productivity gains. Any suggestions that AI paves the way for near-term... 14th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Burnham government – will policy ambition collide with economic reality? 21st July 2026, 2:00PM BST From "the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war period" to "the biggest rebalancing of power our country has seen", Andy Burnham, the UK's next Prime Minister, has proclaimed a
