Asia Economics Focus How would emerging Asia cope with a euro break-up? The major impact of euro-zone break-up on emerging Asia would come from the resulting weakness of export demand. If the break-up was relatively smooth and the US continued to grow, as we think is... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Signs of a return to “two-speed” growth Activity in much of Latin America appears to have picked up over the past couple of months, following the slowdown seen over the second half of last year. But while worries about the overall pace of... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Is this the real deal? Hopes that the US economy has finally embarked on a significant and sustained recovery are likely to be dashed by events overseas. There is little doubt that the economy has strengthened in the early... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in energy prices won't stop inflation falling Mervyn King’s forecast of a “zig-zag” year grabbed the headlines after last week’s Inflation Report, with the Governor warning that June’s extra bank holiday would lead to a bumpy path for output this... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January's consumer price data are a mixed bag. Headline inflation fell to a ten-month low of 2.9%, from 3.0%, while core inflation edged up to a three-year high of 2.3%, from 2.2%. Favourable base... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) January's increase in consumer price inflation, to 2.5% from 2.3%, is mostly a reflection of some recent noise in new motor vehicle and electricity prices. Since these prices are also included in the... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) On the face of it, January’s official retail sales figures suggest that a recovery in high street spending is gaining momentum. But there are reasons to doubt the strength of the official data. In any... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s Bank of England Inflation Report suggested that the MPC is unlikely to extend its asset purchase programme much further. But we think that inflation will fall further... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Money and credit still very weak While some of the euro-zone activity indicators have nudged up this month, money and credit growth have weakened further. The annual growth rate of the broad money supply fell to an 11-month low of 1... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s retail sales data are better than they look and provide yet more evidence that the US economy is improving. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Making sense of Latin America’s inflation conundrum Recent data have given mixed messages on the outlook for inflation in Latin America. On the one hand, inflation seems to be firmly on a downward path in Brazil and Peru. Yet the drop in Chilean... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher inflation has made the public finances worse Today’s data from the FSA showed that banks are picking up the pace at which they are compensating consumers for mis-sold Payment Protection Insurance (PPI). While the compensation will provide a... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian inflation drops further The drop in inflation to 6.6% y/y in January results primarily from base effects and falling food prices. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence that underlying inflationary pressure has eased for... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s drop in inflation took it another step closer to the sub-2% rates that we expect to see by the end of the year. Indeed, this time next year, Mervyn King could be getting his pen out to write... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
