Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) & Unemployment (May) The renewed decline in euro-zone HICP inflation in June highlighted that the ECB still has a lot of work to do to hit its inflation target in the medium term. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s sharp fall in German HICP inflation confirmed that underlying price pressures have remained very subdued even in the euro-zone’s strongest economy. 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates again? Although there is limited scope to reduce interest rates further, the hit from lower oil prices on the economy is taking a heavier toll than widely acknowledged. Without any offset from the non-energy... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to pick up as oil price effect fades EM inflation is set to accelerate in the months ahead as downward pressure from thefall in oil prices late last year unwinds. This will ease concerns about deflation in anumber of EMs, including China... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation report suggests more tightening to come The Central Bank of Brazil’s Q2 Inflation Report gives the clearest indication yet that policymakersbelieve they have more work to do in the fight against inflation. We’ve pencilled in another... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Changes to Brazil’s inflation target reinforce hawkish message The changes announced by Brazil’s government to the central bank’s inflation target are small in thegrand scheme of things but reinforce the overall message that policymakers are serious about getting... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (May) Even though the labour market continues to tighten, the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation measure fell towards zero last month. Sluggish consumer spending suggests that price pressures are unlikely... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tackling unemployment requires structural reform South Africa’s official unemployment rate hit a ten year high of 26.4% in Q1 2015, hammering home the scale of the country’s jobs challenge. Indeed unemployment in the country is more widespread than... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Apr.) & Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) Activity data from Mexico for April suggest that, after a weak Q1, the economy has continued to struggle at the start of Q2. In better news, inflation data to the middle of the month, also released... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Following the drop in the flash estimate of the manufacturing PMI, the fall in small business confidence in June adds to evidence that the economy slowed sharply in Q2. 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Evidence mounts of a big second-quarter rebound There is now a wide mix of evidence showing that, after a very weak start to the year, the economy is booming again. May is turning out to be a particularly strong month: Existing home sales hit a six... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
