Africa Chart Pack African interest rates begin rise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) finally began its long-awaited tightening cycle by raising the repo rate from 5.75% to 6.00% this month. We had anticipated the move, and expect that the SARB... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) The jump in small business confidence in July suggests that the economy should recover in the third quarter after Q2’s slump. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Renewed focus on Gulf’s fiscal positions The fresh fall in oil prices has turned attention back to fiscal positions in the Gulf, with the UAE’s government the latest to announce measures to rein in spending. The UAE plans to deregulate fuel... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan-China trade agreements are not a big deal There is concern among some parts of Taiwan’s business community that a cooler stance toward China under the next government could hurt the economy. However, closer relations between China and Taiwan... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for real pay continues to brighten Households are continuing to see substantial increases in their purchasing power. Annual growth in average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) picked up from 2.7% in April to 2.8% in May, well above... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jul.) The continued decline in inflation in Mexico in the first half of this month should further dispel fears that a weaker currency will have any meaningful impact on the headline rate. With inflation... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, but hikes on horizon The statement accompanying today’s Turkish central bank decision, at which interest rates were lef tunchanged, made it clear that the MPC isn’t reading too much into June’s much sharper-than-expected... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The weaker tone of June’s retail sales figures does not alter the big picture that the consumer recovery remains in full swing. And with the UK set to experience another period of “good” deflation... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update New inflation gauges do not alter the outlook for monetary policy The Bank of Japan has started to publish a wider set of inflation measures in its monthly report. With all of them showing inflation well below the 2% target, we think suggestions that this shift... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading towards 2% The 0.25% reduction in interest rates, to 3.00% from 3.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today is the second in a series of cuts that we think could take interest rates all the way... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy being dragged down by investment slump The slump in oil prices has already pushed the Canadian economy into a mild recession and things could yet go from bad to worse. Falling energy investment will hit both production and jobs, which will... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The further rise in Brazil’s inflation in the first half of this month means that another 50bp hike in the Selic interest rate at next week’s COPOM meeting is almost a certainty. But there are signs... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
